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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered double-digit growth and a clean beat vs consensus: total revenue $62.5M (+24% YoY) and diluted EPS $0.16; consensus was ~$61.1M revenue and $0.10 EPS, respectively. Guidance for FY 2025 revenue ($250–$260M) and net product sales ($240–$250M) was reiterated, signaling confidence in the outlook . Estimates marked with asterisks are from S&P Global.
  • LUPKYNIS net product sales rose 25% YoY to $60.0M on continued LN penetration, with gross margin at 86% amid restructuring-driven OpEx efficiencies; cash flow from operations was $1.3M (or $12.4M excluding $11.1M restructuring payments), and the company repurchased 5.8M shares for $47.4M in the quarter .
  • Management cited updated ACR LN guidelines recommending CNIs like LUPKYNIS earlier in therapy and growing rheumatology prescribing as key commercial drivers; FY25 guidance was maintained and seasonality (softer summer, stronger Q4) is expected to shape quarterly cadence .
  • Near-term catalysts include initial Phase 1 AUR200 (dual BAFF/APRIL inhibitor) SAD data by end of Q2, continued share repurchases, and the evolving LN competitive landscape (anticipated Roche Gazyva approval) with management arguing LUPKYNIS’ faster proteinuria reduction aligns tightly with guideline goals .
  • Risk watch: ANDA challenges to dosing patent (2037) under 30-month stay; tariff exposure minimal near term given several years of U.S. inventory and Swiss API being a small COGS component, but legal and policy developments remain monitored .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong top-line and EPS beat vs consensus: revenue $62.5M vs ~$61.1M*, and diluted EPS $0.16 vs ~$0.10*; LUPKYNIS net product sales up 25% YoY to $60.0M, demonstrating sustained LN penetration .
    “We achieved strong growth in total revenue and net product sales in the first quarter” — Peter Greenleaf .
  • Operating discipline: SG&A fell to $20.3M (from $47.7M YoY) with gross margin at 86% and CFO reaffirming ~$40M cash-based OpEx savings trajectory from the 2024 restructuring .
  • Capital allocation: $47.4M buybacks (5.8M shares) in Q1 and cumulative 14.5M shares/$108.5M since program launch through May 8, funded by operations and cash on hand .

What Went Wrong

  • Cash and investments declined to $312.9M from $358.5M at year-end, reflecting buybacks and working capital changes; cash from operations was modest at $1.3M before adjusting for restructuring cash payments .
  • Ongoing ANDA litigation introduces patent defense overhang; management will vigorously defend but provided limited visibility on timelines, keeping an element of legal uncertainty .
  • Competitive watch: anticipated Gazyva entry may complicate LN treatment dynamics; management argues CNI speed-of-effect advantage, but specialists expect some uptake and share shifts, requiring continued differentiation and education .

Financial Results

Core Financials vs Prior Periods and Estimates

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$67.771 $59.867 $62.465
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.10 $0.01 $0.16
Gross Margin (%)91% 91% 86%
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)*$57.693$59.945$61.059
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)*$0.015-$0.016$0.10

Values with asterisks (*) are from S&P Global.

Observations: Q1 beat revenue and EPS; Q4 was roughly in line on revenue and a clear EPS beat; Q3 delivered material beats on both .

Segment Revenue Breakdown

Segment ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Product Sales$55.503 $57.582 $59.971
License, Collaboration & Royalty$12.268 $2.285 $2.494
Total Revenue$67.771 $59.867 $62.465

Notes: Q3’s license/collab line benefited from a $10M milestone related to Japan approval; Q4 and Q1 reflect normalized levels and manufacturing services/royalties .

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Cash & Investments ($USD Millions)$348.7 $358.5 $312.9
Cash Flow from Operations ($USD Millions)$17.0 $30.1 $1.3 (or $12.4 excl. $11.1M restructuring cash)
SG&A ($USD Millions)$42.367 $37.032 $20.339
R&D ($USD Millions)$3.047 $8.107 $5.743
Restructuring ($USD Millions)$0.000 $15.351 $1.533
Share Repurchases ($USD Millions)$18.435 (nine months) $41.0 (FY 2024; 6.1M shares) $47.4 (5.8M shares)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total RevenueFY 2025$250–$260M (Feb-27) $250–$260M (May-12) Maintained
Net Product SalesFY 2025$240–$250M (Feb-27) $240–$250M (May-12) Maintained
Cash-based OpEx SavingsOngoing“> $40M annualized” (Nov-7 restructuring) “On track to ~$40M” (Q1 call) Maintained trajectory

Management reiterated seasonality expectations (softer 2Q–3Q; stronger 4Q) rather than quarterly guidance, anchoring cadence to historicals .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024 and Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
ACR LN Guidelines & Treat-to-TargetEmphasized as growth driver; restructuring to focus on rheumatology and hospitals Reiterated focus; earlier initiation of LUPKYNIS in rheumatology; ACR print release specificity for CNIs Strengthening narrative
R&D: AUR200 (BAFF/APRIL)Phase 1 initiated; potency and monthly dosing potential discussed in FY24 call SAD data by end of Q2; PD/PK endpoints (IgG/IgA/IgM, half-life) to inform MAD Near-term catalyst
Capital Allocation: BuybacksProgram underway; $70M/9.7M shares by Feb-25 $47.4M/5.8M shares in Q1; cumulative 14.5M/$108.5M by May-8 Ongoing; accretive
OpEx DisciplineRestructuring to save >$40M annually On track to ~$40M cash-based OpEx savings Executing
Competition (Gazyva)Preparing for potential market evolution Management views CNI rapid proteinuria reduction as advantageous; specialists anticipate uptake post-approval Rising attention
IP/Litigation (ANDA)Orange Book/exclusivity and patent portfolio reiterated Filers challenged dosing patent; 30‑month stay; vigorous defense Ongoing risk
Supply Chain/Tariffs/MacroNot a focus in prior quarter documentsMinimal tariff exposure due to U.S. inventory; Swiss API is small COGS component; transfer pricing watch Monitored, limited near term

Management Commentary

  • “Following the recent update to the American College of Rheumatology lupus nephritis treatment guideline… our commercial organization is focused on educating rheumatologists about the benefits of initiating LUPKYNIS earlier in the treatment paradigm.” — Peter Greenleaf .
  • “For the three months ended March 31, 2025, gross margin was 86%… total operating expenses were $40.6M… the decrease is primarily due to lower personnel expenses… as a result of our strategic restructuring efforts in 2024.” — Joe Miller .
  • “We are reiterating our total revenue guidance in the range of $250M to $260M and net product sales guidance in the range of $240M to $250M for 2025.” — Peter Greenleaf .
  • “We remain on track to report initial results from our Phase 1 study of AUR200… later this quarter.” — Peter Greenleaf .

Q&A Highlights

  • Quarterly cadence and drivers: Management steered investors to historical seasonality (softer 2Q–3Q; stronger 4Q) and cited a balanced mix of new patient adds, persistency, and time-to-drug improvements, with increasing rheumatology prescribing .
  • ANDA risk and defense: Lawsuits filed; 30‑month stay applies; no detailed timelines; focus on defending patents and sustaining LUPKYNIS revenue stream longevity .
  • Tariffs/transfer pricing/MSN exposure: Swiss API; several years’ U.S. inventory; minimal near-term tariff impact; monitoring U.S. policy on transfer pricing and reimbursement mix .
  • SG&A/OpEx outlook: No line-item guidance; on track for ~$40M cash-based OpEx savings; a small stock-based compensation true-up flowed through SG&A in Q1 .
  • Competitive impact (Gazyva): Management emphasized the speed of proteinuria reduction with CNIs vs. B-cell agents aligning with guideline goals; expects market education to expand LN treatment and support LUPKYNIS positioning .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 beat: revenue $62.465M vs ~$61.059M* and diluted EPS $0.16 vs ~$0.10*; both above consensus .
  • Trailing quarters: Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 actuals compared favorably (Q3 material beat; Q4 in-line on revenue and beat on EPS), supporting the FY25 guidance maintenance .
  • Potential estimate revisions: Continued momentum, ACR guideline tailwinds, and OpEx savings could support upward EPS revisions; management’s reiteration of FY guidance tempers aggressive upward revenue revisions pending 2Q trends .

Estimates Table (S&P Global)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)*57.69359.94561.059
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)*0.015-0.0160.10

Values with asterisks (*) are from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Strong Q1 print with revenue/EPS beats and maintained FY25 guidance supports a constructive near-term setup; watch for seasonal dip in Q2–Q3 and stronger Q4 cadence per history .
  • LUPKYNIS growth is anchored by earlier-line positioning under ACR guidelines and rising rheumatology prescribing; management focus on hospital and academic centers should further buttress adoption .
  • OpEx discipline is real: SG&A materially lower YoY; ~$40M cash-based savings trajectory flows to improved operating leverage and cash generation as restructuring effects normalize .
  • Share repurchases are a continuing capital allocation lever (Q1: $47.4M; cumulative $108.5M by May-8), providing EPS support while the topline grows double digits .
  • Competitive lens: Gazyva’s potential approval is a watch item; LUPKYNIS’ speed-to-goal on proteinuria and triple therapy data remain strategic differentiators aligned to guideline urgency .
  • Legal overhang: ANDA filings challenge dosing patents; 30‑month stay affords time, but headline risk persists; ongoing vigorous defense reiterated by management .
  • Near-term catalyst: AUR200 SAD data by end of Q2 (PD/PK, biomarker impacts, half-life) to define MAD study and potential differentiation vs other BAFF/APRIL agents .

Additional Data and Source Citations

  • Q1 2025 8-K Item 2.02 and Exhibit 99.1 press release: revenue mix, net income, cash, guidance .
  • Condensed financial statements (Q1 2025): P&L, balance sheet, cash flows .
  • Q1 2025 earnings call transcript: prepared remarks and Q&A themes .
  • Prior quarters: Q4 2024 8-K and press release (financials, guidance initiation) ; Q3 2024 8-K (financials, restructuring, market metrics) .
  • Clinical/medical data communications during Q2 2025: AURORA 1 proteinuria analyses and ENLIGHT-LN registry highlights .
  • Competitive landscape commentary (Spherix): LN guidelines and anticipated Gazyva positioning/uptake .

S&P Global disclaimer: All consensus estimate values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.